Friday, September 10, 2010

Perkasa Impact to UMNO - Likelihood scenario

KUALA LUMPUR: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said yesterday that Umno cannot afford to distance itself from Perkasa as it represented a large number of Malay voters.

The former prime minister said Umno could lose seats in the next general election if it chose to distance itself from the Malay rights group.

"Perkasa members are Umno supporters. It would not help Umno's cause to turn them away," he told the New Straits Times yesterday.

Assumption : Perkasa to remain as non political party

Alternatives : 1) Perkasa supporters vote for Pakatan Rakyat.

2) Perkasa supporters vote for independent candidates.

3) Perkasa supporters vote for UMNO.

4) Perkasa supporters vote do not vote.

Likelihood scenario: Chances for 2 and 3 is the highest probability given Pakatan and Perkasa is of two extreme end of ideologies, it doesn't make sense that they would do so to piss off UMNO. Although they may decide not to vote, but that would only bring the chances of Pakatan even closer without a bunch of UMNO votes all this while...

However if UMNO had not distance itself from Perkasa, it may not lose UMNO votes, it's the BN component parties that may lose votes...

So, I don't quite understand how Dr M sees Perkasa as an ally here...

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